The objective of this project is to implement a clinical
prediction rule that calculates and displays the probability of true bacteremia
for patients with positive blood cultures, and to determine if this information
is helpful to physicians when they make treatment decisions. The clinical
prediction rule uses a logistic regression model that stratifies positive blood
cultures into 4 risk categories based on factors that are known at the time of
first report. The prediction factors used to determine risk category were
organism type, time until the culture first turned positive, and the presence of
other cultures positive for the same organism. This rule has been implemented in
the BWH's microbiology results review system so that the probability information
is displayed whenever a positive blood culture result is viewed online. This
study demonstrates that we can use electronic data to make calculations for a
clinical prediction rule to help clinicians assess the probability that a given
positive blood culture result represents true bacteremia. Aggregation of
electronic data in ways that can help clinicians with decision-making is a key
way that electronic records can improve care. Further evaluation is underway to
determine the actual impact of this intervention on physicians' behavior and
patient outcomes.